A simpler correlation between performance and adjustment. A wider range of BoP parameters.

Updated 5/5/2025 (first published 22/4/2025)

Spa-Francorchamps¹ is the third of the new 3 race average approach².

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Observations – Previous Performance – BoP change – Correlation – Data

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Observations

• The correlation between the performance over the last three races and the change to the BoP (power and weight) compared to those races is much improved.
  • The high speed power and speed trap data correlation is not there like it was for Bahrain and Imola.
• There is a wider range of powers. With the lower power limit reduced. This matches the change IMSA has made. Before it appeared they were reluctant to go under 500kW, having done so only slightly before³.
• There are limitations to what adjustments can be made:
  • No car goes above 520kW high power limit. Toyota and Cadillac are still seen as draggy and have the highest high speed power. There appears to be a 520kW maximum that they don’t want to go over even for high speed only.
  • Another limit they seem to be bumping up against is the lower weight limit, which Peugeot is still at (1030kg). Aston Martin is moving towards that.
• At the other end of the scale the upper range of the weight scale is being pushed, with Toyota up where it had to be when Vanwall/Glickenhaus was in the series!

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Previous Three Race Performance

To come up with these the rule makers compare to the last three race. So let’s start by reminding ourselves of the order in those races.

What did the last three races look like:
Updated three race average (Bahrain, Qatar, and Imola). The races that has dropped out of the calculation is included for reference.

Combined Peak and Stint Performance

·	24.6 COTA	24.7 Fuji	24.8 Bahrain	25.1 Qatar	25.2 Imola
1st	Toyota	Cadillac	Toyota	Ferrari	Ferrari
2nd	Alpine	Porsche	Ferrari	BMW	BMW
3rd	Ferrari	BMW	Porsche	Toyota	Toyota
4th	BMW	Alpine	Alpine	Cadillac	Alpine
5th	Cadillac	Toyota	BMW	Peugeot	Peugeot
6th	Porsche	Peugeot	Peugeot	Alpine	Porsche
7th	Lamborghini	Ferrari	Cadillac	Porsche	Cadillac
8th	Peugeot	Lamborghini	Lamborghini	Aston Martin	Aston Martin

The average of all those combine peak and stint performances these three rounds:

·	Manufacturer	24.8 Bahrain	25.1 Qatar	25.2 Imola	Average	Adjustment Needed
1	Ferrari	2	1	1	100.12%	-43bps
2	Toyota	1	3	3	100.22%	-33 bps
3	BMW	5	2	2	100.33%	-23 bps
4	Alpine	4	6	4	100.55%	0 bps
5	Porsche	3	7	6	100.62%	+7 bps
6	Cadillac	7	4	7	100.69%	+13 bps
7	Peugeot	6	5	5	100.73%	+18 bps
8	Aston Martin	NA (1)	8	8	101.16%	+60 bps
	Lamborghini	8	NA	NA	NA	NA
			Average		100.55%	0 bps

Aston Martin had such a relatively poor performance that it offsets Toyota’s theoretical best performances Bahrain

Speed Trap

Repeating the same exercise for Speed Trap data here is the ranking by race:

·	24.6 COTA	24.7 Fuji	24.8 Bahrain	25.1 Qatar	25.2 Imola
1st	Ferrari	Ferrari	Peugeot	BMW	Peugeot
2nd	Alpine	Porsche	Toyota	Ferrari	Ferrari
3rd	Lamborghini	Alpine	Porsche	Peugeot	Alpine
4th	Peugeot	BMW	Ferrari	Alpine	Cadillac
5th	BMW	Peugeot	Alpine	Porsche	BMW
6th	Porsche	Cadillac	Cadillac	Toyota	Porsche
7th	Toyota	Toyota	BMW	Aston Martin	Aston Martin
8th	Cadillac	Lamborghini	Lamborghini	Cadillac	Toyota

The average of all those speed trap ratings these three rounds:

·	Manufacturer	24.8 Bahrain	25.1 Qatar	25.2 Imola	Average	Adjustment Needed
1	Peugeot	1	3	1	99.96%	-63 bps
2	Aston Martin	NA (1)	7	7	99.14%	-12 bps
3	Ferrari	4	2	2	99.13%	-11 bps
4	BMW	7	1	5	99.13%	-11 bps
5	Toyota	2	6	8	99.04%	-2 bps
6	Porsche	3	5	6	98.88%	+14 bps
7	Alpine	5	8	3	98.83%	+19 bps
8	Cadillac	6	8	4	98.37%	+65 bps
	Lamborghini	8	NA	NA	NA	NA
		Average			99.02%	0 bps

These are very close, with the exception of Peugeot. This has a very negative high speed adjustment (and overall poor lap pace), so it is unsure what further adjustments can be made.

These will referenced against the last three races BoP position.

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Latest BoP for Spa

Power:Weight

Toyota and Ferrari lose out here, with Cadillac and BMW following suit. This is perhaps a little surprising as Cadillac’s strong Fuji performance has fallen out of the development sample.

Porsche is adjusted more like BMW and Cadillac, rather than Ferrari and Toyota. That will in part be due to the penalty for its 2025 upgrade, but should this have been more considering its recent performance?

Weight

This has been achieved for Ferrari mainly by a big increase in weight. Toyota shifts up to, along with a big reduction in power, but it doesn’t lose out with the high speed power, that adjustment compensates.

Aston now has 2/3rds of the input data related to its own performance. It gets a big weight break.

Power

They have gone more IMSA-esque here and widened the range of powers they are happy to give.

High Speed Power

Toyota and Cadillac are both seen as bricks and are at the limit of what it seems the rule makers want to give these cars (520kW).

Peugeot and Alpine get a little reprieve here.

Potentially there is a nuance going on here. With a desire to narrow the gap at high speed power and with consideration of what has happened at lower speed – is that due to how long they will spend at >250 kph at Spa?

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Correlation with Race Performance

Power:Weight

There is a much better correlation for Spa than we saw for Qatar and Imola. This potentially could indicate that Fuji introduced a bit of wildcard into the performance measurement.

An example of how to read these charts and expected correlations are given in an attempt to understand how that might work. A brief example is given below the footnotes on this page.

Power:Weight

It’s a good correlation. If you are above the correlation line then you have done relatively well, below not so much.

However these variations could simple be down to variations in the input performance data and nuances to each car’s BoP impact model.

Weight

This correlation exists in power and weight, which this time has made it much easier to understand.

Power

High Speed Power

For the last two races the correlation between high speed performance and BoP change over the three races has been excellent. Not this time.

Another random hypothesis; maybe due to the bigger movements to power and weight there has to be some compensation here that ruins the previous simple power v. speed trap data.

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Long Term Tables/Charts

For reference here are the BoP tables for power and weight going back to the beginning of time.

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1. WEC_2025_D24_Hypercar_BOP ↩︎
2. Here is an attempt to understand how that might work. ↩︎
3. Ignoring Alpine’s grandfathered LMP1, obviously you pedantic so and so. ↩︎